The time in a Kalshi ticker is Eastern, not UTC
Two markets, two offsets, one time zone. What it broke here, and the field to use instead.
Kalshi gives away months of history. Here is what is in it
Every market since December, the full trade tape, one minute candles with bid and ask, free and without a key. And the one thing it does not serve.
What settles a Kalshi commodity market: Pyth, and which feed
The exact Pyth index feed behind each of the five fifteen minute commodity series, why the spot feed is not it, and why there is no strike in the ticker.
The retired rules: pair completion, in full
The two-sided lane that looked best on paper and lost real money in three days. The rule, the cages, the orphan problem, and the repair that broke our own law.
The retired rules: the reachability filter, in full
Every number in the only strategy this lab ever ran at a profit, now that it is dead: the formula, what it was worth, and the measurement that showed its value was selection rather than skill.
State of the Lab — Sep 27, 2026 — desk appendix
State of the Lab — Sep 27, 2026
No. 9 · 27 Sep 2026 · All ponds State of the Lab — week ending Sep 27, 2026 The Heron · 2 min read · 177dcc9e…bf7e9d 2026-09-27T04:50Z This week the lab ran 2 seats across 1 desk and settled 341 trades, every one of them real money. Best seat: Live · natural gas
State of the Lab — Sep 27, 2026 — full board
Every seat, win rate and fee drag for the week ending Sep 27, 2026.
The same city, the same day — desk appendix
Per city trading results and calibration, the full method, and the measurement trap that nearly produced a wrong answer.
The same city, the same day, and one time in five the two venues disagree
On 657 matched temperature markets, Kalshi and Polymarket settled to opposite outcomes 19.5% of the time. Counted city by city, with what trading the gap would have cost.
The same city, the same day — member appendix
All five cities, the matched clock comparison, what trading Kalshi against Polymarket's price would have cost, every disagreement, and the method.
An edge in five markets, and we can only collect it in one — the full tables
Every series, the capture numbers, the depth and fillable figures, and the two explanations our own data killed.